Iran’s Air Force Still Not Likely To Acquire New Fighters Anytime Soon

Six months have passed since the United Nations arms embargo on it expired, yet there still aren’t any signs that Iran will, or even can, acquire any new fighter jets for its aged air force.

Last October, as part of the July 2015 nuclear deal, the United Nations conventional arms embargo against Iran expired. As expected, Tehran did not immediately go on a manic shopping spree for new weapons systems. In fact, Iran has not made any notable procurements of foreign arms since then.


The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) is made up of very outdated fighters, especially compared to its regional rivals Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which operate highly advanced variants of the F-15 (the F-15SA/Saudi Advanced) and F-16 (the Block 60 “Desert Falcon”). The IRIAF still flies F-14A Tomcats, F-4 Phantom IIs, and F-5 Tiger IIs, all of which were all acquired when it was an ally of the United States before 1979 under the regime of the last shah. Since then, Iran has gone from fielding the most advanced cutting-edge fighter fleet in the Greater Middle East, except for Israel, to one of the oldest in the region. 

Iranian air force’s US-made F-14 fighter jets perform during a parade on the occasion of the … [+] country’s Army Day, on April 18, 2017, in Tehran. / ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

The only notable acquisition of fighter jets for the IRIAF post-1979 was in the early 1990s, when French and Soviet-built Iraqi Air Force fighter jets flew to Iran to avoid destruction during Operation Desert Storm. Tehran promptly confiscated and integrated all of these aircraft into the IRIAF. During that same period, the IRIAF also acquired a small number of MiG-29As from the moribund Soviet Union. In 1992 and 2001, Iran tried to buy twin-engine MiG-31 Foxhound fighter interceptors from Russia but interference by the United States successfully prevented any such deal from going ahead.

It, therefore, goes without saying that most of the IRIAF’s inventory is very old and in increasing need of newer fighter jets. So why isn’t Tehran taking its present opportunity to buy any? 

If Iran were to buy fighter jets in the near future, the broad consensus among analysts is that they would most likely be from either Russia or China. 

A detailed December 2017 International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) report exploring Iran’s post-embargo options reasonably anticipated that the IRIAF would ultimately acquire at least two new types of fighters sometime in this decade or the early 2030s. It suggested that buying one type from Russia and another type from China would be prudent since that “would provide Iran with a hedge, were its partnership with one of these powers to sour.”

Russian two-seater Su-30SM multi-role air superiority fighters have often been suggested as a replacement option for Iran’s F-14As, which have been in service for over 40 years now. 

IRKUTSK, RUSSIA JANUARY 30, 2019: A Su-30SM fighter aircraft at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant, a … [+] subsidiary of the Irkut Corporation. Vadim Savitsky/Russian Defence Ministry Press Office/TASS (Photo by Vadim SavitskyTASS via Getty Images)

Vadim Savitsky/POOL/TASS

However, analysts also suggested that Iran would more likely seek the lightweight single-engine JF-17 Thunder jointly developed by China and Pakistan since it is, on average, about $10 million cheaper than a Su-30SM. Furthermore, Iran might find that particular fighter easier to maintain since it uses a variant of the Klimov RD-33 turbofan similar to the ones that power Iran’s MiG-29As. 

The IISS analysis also pointed out that Iran may not be able to afford sufficient numbers of Su-30SMs or Su-35s to replace its F-14s and F-4s. Consequently, Tehran could buy a limited number of these 4.5-generation Russian aircraft and then make up the difference with cheaper Chinese fighters. It cites the JF-17 as the most affordable fighter Tehran could buy from Beijing but suggests a more capable, albeit more expensive, option would be the J-10 Firebird. It also suggests that the JF-17 could be a suitable replacement for Iran’s F-5s and F-7Ms, the latter being China’s version of the vintage Soviet MiG-21, while J-10s could replace its MiG-29As, among others.

Despite a potential Chinese option being cheaper, Iran still isn’t likely to make any significant acquisitions soon. 

BEIJING, April 16, 2018 — File photo shows a J-10C fighter jet in a training. China’s new … [+] multi-role fighter jet J-10C began combat duty Monday, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) air force announced. It is China’s third-generation supersonic fighter and made its debut when the PLA marked its 90th anniversary in July 2017 at Zhurihe military training base in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Equipped with an advanced avionics system and various airborne weapons, the domestically-developed fighter has airstrike capabilities within medium and close range and is capable of precisely striking land and maritime targets. (Xinhua/Xi Bobo via Getty Images)

Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images

Since the lifting of the arms embargo, Iran is rumored to have shown interest in purchasing 36 J-10Cs. However, Beijing is reportedly reluctant to sell it the jets since, instead of hard cash, Tehran wants to trade oil for the jets. Economic sanctions and the dramatic decrease in the value of its national currency have taken a heavy toll on Iran economically. Meanwhile, China is not interested in exchanging J-10s for oil. 

Every few years, there are new rumors and speculation about which fighter jets Iran might acquire to modernize its air force. In 2007, reports indicated that it was purchasing a staggering 250 Su-30s from Russia. In the wake of the 2015 nuclear deal, there were also reports that Iran sought to acquire a much smaller number of Su-30s and even briefly considered seeking French Mirage 2000 jets. Ultimately Iran did not import any new fighter jets. 


Then as now, the likelihood that Iran will make any significant procurement of new fighter jets anytime soon is pretty slim, despite the increased necessity of doing so for the future of its air force.

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