Let’s Talk About The Flurry Of Unusual Aircraft Activity Over Russia Today

Over the course of two days this past week, as the conflict in Ukraine raged on, a significant number of aircraft assigned to Russia’s Rossiya Special Flight Detachment have made curious flights in and around the country. This unit, technically part of state-owned Rossiya Airlines, a division of the flag carrier Aeroflot, operates a variety of specialized planes, including airborne command posts, communications relay jets, and VVIP aircraft, among others. The sorties have come amid a flurry of other interesting flight activity emanating from Russia, as well.

The flights in question took place between Thursday and Friday, March 17 and 18. It should be noted immediately that the Rossiya Special Flight Detachment’s aircraft fly regularly and that the total number of sorties was not necessarily higher than one might expect to see, at least as part of average day-to-day or week-to-week activity. However, what was visible via online flight tracking software drew particular attention because of the unusually coordinated nature of a large number of flights all at once from the Moscow area followed by the largely unexplained dispersal of many of them to intriguing locations, particularly to the east.

On Friday, online flight tracking software showed at least six planes from the Rossiya Special Flight Detachment departing from the Moscow area in relatively rapid succession, including an Il-96-300PU presidential plane, a Russian equivalent to America’s VC-25A Air Force One jets, and a smaller Tu-214PU airborne command post jet. Another specialized aircraft assigned to this unit, the Il-96-400VPU, was also subsequently spotted leaving the Moscow area. The Il-96-400VPU is generally believed to be a “doomsday” plane able to provide command and control for Russian nuclear forces in a crisis, and that is roughly analogous to the U.S. Air Force’s E-4B Nightwatch jets.

At the same time, where these aircraft flew and the timing of their flights – especially the sequential departures from the Moscow area followed by the dispersal of many aircraft to locations to the east – are out of the ordinary. It’s not unreasonable to then ask whether at least some of this activity might be tied to the conflict in Ukraine, which by every indication has not gone according to President Vladimir Putin’s plans, or the second-order impacts that the war has had on Russia and its relations with the international community.

The appearance of the Il-96-400VPU over the Moscow area Friday may well have had to do, in part, with Putin taking part in a massive pro-war rally in the city. That event also marked the eighth anniversary of the Russian government seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea region.

The long-distance Il-96 flight three days ago now reflects another option for how Russian leaders could continue to exercise command and control over the country’s military and other key government agencies while reducing their vulnerability during various contingencies.

In addition, Sochi on the Black Sea, where another one of the Rossiya Special Flight Detachment’s Il-96-300 flew on Friday, is within 100 miles of Putin’s Palace at Cape Idokopas, among other things. That palace, which is part of an extensive and heavily guarded complex, has a significant underground component, as well.

Even before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, there had been concerns about how such a conflict might escalate and potential spillover elsewhere in the region, and what the potential thresholds might be for the employment of nuclear weapons. Though experts and observers have long debated the exact nuances of Russian government policy in this regard, there are long-standing fears that the Kremlin could pursue a so-called escalate-to-deescalate strategy. This would a limited nuclear strike with the aim of effectively freezing a conflict by making opponents fearful of the potential for further escalation, as well as of creating a situation where third parties would be extremely unwilling to intervene for the same general reasons.

In announcing the start of the “special military operation,” in Ukraine, Putin had made what many interpreted as a veiled threat to possibly use nuclear weapons against any country that attempted to intervene on behalf of the government in Kyiv. Just days after that, he announced he was placing the country’s strategic deterrent forces on heightened alert. At the rally in Moscow on Friday, Putin had pointed out that the invasion of Ukraine had started on the birthday of a famous Russian Imperial Navy admiral, Fyodor Ushakov, who is now the patron saint of the country’s nuclear bomber forces.

Deputy Secretary of Russia’s Security Council and former president Dmitry Medvedev said separately on Friday that “Russia has the might to put all of our brash enemies in their place,” raising new concerns in this regard.

Since then, Russian authorities have accused the Ukrainian government, possibly with help from the United States, of seeking to develop nuclear weapons, as well as other weapons of mass destruction. Some have feared these wholly unsubstantiated remarks could be preludes to Russian forces employing these kinds of weapons, or otherwise staging nuclear, chemical, or biological incidents, in Ukraine or elsewhere. 

Beyond all this, these two days of flights involving Rossiya Special Flight Detachment came amid other eye-catching flight activity on the part of the Russian military and other government agencies in the country, some of which appeared to be interconnected. For example, while the Il-96-300 that headed to Sochi was tailed at least for part of its trip by an Il-76 airlifter from the country’s Ministry of Emergency Situations, also referred to by the acronym EMERCOM. This ministry is ostensibly in charge of overseeing civil emergency responses to natural disasters and other crises. However, its aircraft have been used to move other cargoes in the past, including deliveries of weapons and humanitarian aid to foreign countries.

There’s also the matter of the private jets scurrying to the Middle East. That may well be, at least in part, a product of increasingly crippling sanctions on elite members of Russian society and on the country’s aviation sector, including foreign-made commercial aircraft. With many countries closing their airspace to Russian-owned or operated aircraft of any kind, positioning these planes in a third country that is still open to them, or even re-registering them there, might be advantageous in some way. These movements could have been part of an effort to avoid the planes being effectively seized by the Russian government as part of counter-sanctions efforts, as well.

Of course, these are all just some possible reasons for these various flights based on other information that is available. We really can’t say for certain that these are the exact explanations for what was observed in recent days. More information may well yet emerge that provides additional context or outright confirmation of the purposes of these sorties. But one would think that drilling for continuity of government operations, including a quick exodus of leadership from Moscow to a number of predetermined and more survivable locations, would be prudent considering the geopolitical realities of the day.

Whatever the case, it is worth noting that all of these aircraft in question were flying with their transponders on, allowing them to be tracked online. This all but certainly means that the Russian government wanted this activity noticed and for it to send signals to various parties, including those now arrayed in opposition to the country over the conflict in Ukraine. Of course, indirect signaling always comes with the risk of being misinterpreted, but the risk of such a problem would be quite low based on the limited information we observed. Now that could be different for state actors with robust intelligence-gathering capabilities.

We will definitely be on the lookout for more information that could help explain some or all of these flights, as well as be on the lookout for similar trends in activity going forward. 

Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com