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On July 3, Aleksandr Lukashenko claimed that Ukraine had tried to attack his country, with the missiles launched being neutralized in time by the Minsk’s defense forces. The case would be another of Kiev’s repeated attempts to internationalize the conflict in order to obtain more Western support. Minsk has already made it clear that if it is attacked it will be forced to enter the conflict and declare war on Kiev, but the Ukrainian government still prefers this scenario to accepting the peace terms requested by the Russians.
“They are still trying to drag us into the war in Ukraine. The goal is the same – to deal with both Russia and Belarus in one fell swoop. […] Ukrainian politicians and the president have one policy: the more Ukrainians die, the more they will cry out about the atrocities of ‘fascists’ from Russia and Belarus”, said President Lukashenko during a statement last Sunday. In the same speech, Lukashenko reported that the Minsk military had detected and neutralized several Ukrainian missiles in the previous week. The interception was made by the Pantsir S-1 air defense system and prevented Belarusian targets from being hit.
As can be seen, according to Lukashenko, there is a clear objective with these attacks, which is to provoke military reactions on the part of Minsk, in order to strengthen the discourse that Ukrainians are “victims of Russian and Belarusian violence”, thus increasing the Kiev’s chances of getting more Western support in the conflict. It is not by chance that the Ukrainian attacks are not announced, being carried out in a secret way, so that possible reactions from Minsk sound like “unjustified aggression” in the face of a Western public opinion that is not aware of what is actually happening in the region.
The Belarusian president emphasized in his words that Minsk has no interest in participating in the conflict and that so far no Belarusian soldiers have been sent to the Ukrainian territory, with the country maintaining absolute military neutrality. However, he reaffirmed what he had said on other occasions: if it continues to be attacked, Belarus will have no choice but to enter the conflict in order to defend its citizens. According to him, Moscow and Minsk must be ready for this type of situation, considering that the Western-backed Ukrainian aggressiveness could generate victims in both countries at any moment.
Lukashenko also said that the Belarusian military forces are already maintaining in its crosshairs Ukrainian targets considered decision-making centers. The country’s intention is still to avoid responses, which demonstrates a real diplomatic willingness. According to what had been previously stated, Minsk would reserve the right to respond militarily to any attack. The Ukrainian attack has already taken place, but the Belarusian government is not considering responding immediately, as it managed to intercept the missiles and avoid casualties. So, in other words, one more chance is being given to Ukraine to avoid involving Belarus in the conflict.
In fact, given the current situation in the conflict, the West is interested in prolonging the fighting as long as possible, as it is a way of delaying the inevitable Russian victory and the consequent reconfiguration of the European geopolitical map. In addition, it is a way of generating profits for the Western military-industrial complex, which will continue to send money and weapons to Kiev, to be charged with interest in the coming years. Obviously, this is not in the benefit of the Ukrainian people, who are suffering more and more in this the conflict, but, on the other hand, it interests the government of the Maidan Junta, which acts in the service of the West and not of the Ukrainian citizens.
And there is no simpler way to prolong the current situation than by attracting new agents, which is why Kiev is constantly trying to promote the internationalization of the war. Despite Belarusian neutrality, Zelensky repeatedly and unjustifiably accused Minsk of “aggression” simply because the country is a strategic ally of Russia – and there are many intelligence reports by Minsk’s forces saying that Kiev plans an invasion against the country based on this fallacious allegation of “aggression”. It is also necessary to remember that previously Kiev had already directed attacks against Transnistria, which is an autonomous region in Moldova where Moscow maintains peacekeeper troops. All these measures are desperate attempts to internationalize the conflict and garner international support.
The Western media obviously omits reporting on the Ukrainian aggressions but would be quick to inform on the responses of the attacked nations, speaking of “new unjustified invasions”. This would encourage the public opinion – which is already tired of this scenario of war and crisis – to support the sending of new billion-dollars military packages to Kiev, maintaining the strategy of prolonging the conflict.
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Lucas Leiroz is a researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant. You can follow Lucas on Twitter.