AI predicts win for Germany in Euro 2024 opener, while it’s bad news for England

The Euro 2024 soccer tournament kicks off today (June 14) with Germany facing Scotland in the first match. Artificial intelligence predicts a 2-0 victory for the host nation, Germany, with a likelihood of 76 per cent.

Luzmo’s Octopus AI, named after the famous Paul the Octopus who forecasted results during Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, calculates challenging odds for England.

The AI also suggests Germany has a 40 per cent chance of winning the tournament outright over, bookmakers’ favorite, England’s 34 per cent. Despite these odds, the digital cephalopod predicts if the two nations were to meet, “the most likely individual score is 2 – 2. This should prove to be an interesting match to follow.” As for tonight’s match, Octopus AI says Scotland’s “spirited attack” is no match for the Germans.

Octopus AI doesn’t have high hopes for England

When and where is Euro 2024?

Germany is the host of Euro 2024, which is the first time it has hosted the UEFA European Championship as a unified nation since the tournament in West Germany in 1988 and the 2006 FIFA World Cup. The championship, running from June 14 to July 14, 2024, includes a group stage that concludes on June 26, followed by the knockout stage starting June 29.

Our AI pundit has spoken: we’re predicting 🇩🇪 2 – 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 0 for tonight’s #euro2024 opening match! #GERSCO

P.S.: We just launched our Euro2024 predictions app on @ProductHunt, give it an upvote if you like it! 👉 https://t.co/RdE3ZxAvhB pic.twitter.com/vnRrpqIyTW

— Luzmo (@luzmo_official) June 14, 2024

The UEFA European Championship, second only to the FIFA World Cup in viewership, has senior men’s national teams from UEFA members vying for the continental title. Germany and Spain each hold three titles, while Italy and France have won twice. Other past winners include the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, the Netherlands, Denmark, Greece, and Portugal, with Spain being the only nation to win back-to-back titles in 2008 and 2012. The last Euros in 2021 was won by Italy who beat England in the final.

Who could win Euro 2024 based on Octopus AI?

Haroen Vermeulen, CTO of Luzmo, explained that the company’s AI model used a method similar to the Monte Carlo simulation to predict tournament outcomes. According to this model, France had the best record in the championship simulations, with 22 victories out of 100. While Luzmo’s home country, Belgium, had a 3.4 per cent chance of winning, England showed a 3.2 per cent chance, albeit with a higher probability of reaching the semifinals.

Vermeulen described the model to The Register as “a match simulator that does a play-by-play simulation of games based on things like offensive ratings, of team’s defensive ratings … to essentially make a probability distribution of how many potential targets and expected goals a certain team would be able to achieve versus another team.”

Featured image: Canva / Luzmo

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Suswati Basu