Global Europe Brief: The Belarus connection

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In this week’s edition: Russia’s military presence in Belarus, Munich Security Conference update and more Ukraine diplomacy ahead. Plus: Exclusive interview with Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Kiril Petkov.

Will they stay, or will they go?

Ten days ago, Russia and Belarus launched major war games, dubbed “Union Resolve 2022”, in an already tense region, intensifying concerns about Moscow’s military intentions and sparking condemnation from the West and Ukraine.

The military manoeuvres taking place in southern Belarus, close to the Ukrainian border, are slated to end this Sunday (20 February).

Their name is symbolic and alludes to the Russian-Belarusian ‘Union State’, long-standing efforts to merge political and economic structures.

What started in the 1990s as an arrangement between then-president Boris Yeltsin and Belarus’ leader Alexander Lukashenko, which the latter believed he could dominate, accelerated when Vladimir Putin moved into the Kremlin. It became more consolidated as both countries agreed on closer integration, including on a military level, in 2021.

For Ukraine, the recently revived relationship between its two neighbours spells trouble. In less than two years, Belarus has turned from a country seeking dialogue over eastern Ukraine, including a peacekeeping role, to a potential frontline in the conflict between Russia and its southern neighbour. 

With up to 190,000 Russian troops amassed on its borders, European and Western officials over the past week have pointed towards Russia’s positioning in Belarus, noting it is different from anything they have seen in the past.

In private, EU officials and diplomats over the past weeks have expressed concern about the fact that Lukashenko, who previously has been reluctant to allow this level of Russian involvement on his territory, has become apparently more accepting, likely due to domestic dynamics in the country.

Lukashenko’s crackdown on dissent at home has pushed his country into a deeper military alliance with Putin. Efforts by Lukashenko to show any inch of independence from Russia could easily backfire, with experts believing that Putin’s patience with his Belarusian counterpart is dwindling, which could result in him finding a more reliable replacement.

Military officials have not disclosed how many troops are involved in the drills, and Russia has refused to participate in a transparency meeting under the helm of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Permanent Council, requested by Baltic states.

US experts say about 30,000 soldiers have been deployed to Belarus from locations in Russia. Meanwhile, a statement from the Russian Defence Ministry declared that “the number of participants in the manoeuvres, as well as the number of major weapon systems covered by the Vienna Document 2011, do not exceed the notifiable parameters set out therein.” This would mean less than 9,000 troops.

Experts are doubtful whether the entire Russian military contingent will be withdrawn from the country once the exercises are over this weekend.

On Friday, Lukashenko met with Putin in Moscow, insisting he does not want war. The West “is scaring the whole world saying that we are getting ready to attack, surround, and destroy Ukraine, but we have never had any such plans,” Lukashenko said.

However, he also confirmed that Russian troops might not leave once the exercises are over: “This is our decision: to withdraw the troops tomorrow or in a month. They will be here as long as necessary.” 

Worries grow that the Russian grab of Belarus could be a laboratory for Putin’s plans for Ukraine.

“There is absolutely the possibility that the Russian troops stay permanently, which would create an encirclement around Ukraine,” General Ben Hodges, an ex-commander of US forces in Europe and current head of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told EURACTIV.

Hodges said he does not see any indicators of de-escalation or a withdrawal of Russian troops from the region, as proclaimed by Moscow.

“If somebody moves, it is going to be very minor (…), and if Russia actually doesn’t intend to launch an assault, but stay there and continue to maintain pressure on Ukraine, then the departure of some 10,000 troops is not significant, since it accomplishes what it wants,” he said.

Hodges drew parallels to similar exercises in the region last year in April when a few troops left, but most of them, including their equipment, stayed behind and Russia’s Caspian Sea flotilla that had come over for the exercises remained in the Sea of Azov.

“At the end of the day, Belarus and Ukraine are now back into some sort of Russian sphere of influence and all the implications that come with it,” he added.

However, security concerns go beyond Ukraine.

“There is the likelihood of Russian troops being permanently stationed in Belarus, right next to the very vulnerable Suwałki Gap, so this situation has several bad implications for security instability in Europe,” Hodges added, in reference to a strategic 65-kilometres stretch of land connecting Poland and Lithuania, squeezed between Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus.

G7 ‘GRAVELY CONCERNED | Foreign ministers from the G7 group of wealthy nations said Saturday they saw no evidence that Russia is reducing military activity near Ukraine’s borders, and remain “gravely concerned” about the situation.

“We call on Russia to choose the path of diplomacy, to de-escalate tensions, to substantively withdraw military forces from the proximity of Ukraine’s borders and to fully abide by international commitments,” they said in a joint statement.

“As a first step, we expect Russia to implement the announced reduction of its military activities along Ukraine’s borders. We have seen no evidence of this reduction,” they added.

MORE WEAPONS | Poland is ready to provide Ukraine with additional defensive weapons, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in Munich. “We are ready to provide additional supplies of defensive weapons (…) weapons that are to be used to defend (Ukraine’s) territory, defend cities, defend people, places where they are against the aggressions of the Russian army,” Morawiecki said.

Meanwhile, a German army convoy of 130 soldiers and 60 vehicles reached Lithuania earlier this week, bringing almost half of planned reinforcements for the country’s German-led NATO battlegroup.

NUCLEAR SIDE-TALKS | European nuclear negotiators are expected to use the Munich sidelines this weekend for talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal, which limited Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for broad sanctions relief. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and senior US officials like Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Vice President Kamala Harris will be on the spot, but Iran has so far refused face-to-face meetings with the Americans during the talks.

Meanwhile, negotiators from Iran and the remaining parties to the agreement – the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China – are working in Vienna to restore life to the accord. “An agreement can be expected very soon, (…) ideally in the coming two weeks,” a senior EU diplomat told reporters, adding that “over the last two weeks, delegations have shown a lot of political will – it’s clear that they want a compromise”.

DIVERSITY ISSUES | According to the Munich Security Conference, the final proportion of women speakers in the main program of this year’s conference is 45%. However, in the group of top managers represented at the gathering, the proportions are is obviously different.

A photo taken on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference caused a stir over the weekend, showing 30 middle-aged men, CEO’s of big commercial companies, having a business lunch – not a single woman among them.

FAC PREVIEW | After an ad-hoc meeting of EU leaders on Russia on the margins of a summit with African counterparts passed rather uneventful, its EU foreign ministers turn to discuss the Russian crisis on Monday (21 February).

They will be joined by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who will visit Brussels before going to the United States next week to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and address the United Nations General Assembly.

Ahead of the meeting, an EU senior official said the EU would be ‘extremely concerned’ about the recent provocations in the Donbas and described Russia recent rhetoric and actions as going “in the direction of warfare”. If this kind of pressure continues for weeks and months without an invasion, the EU “will obviously have to think what the answer to this is,” the same official added, in what has been stronger language than heard before in Brussels circles.

Foreign ministers will also participate in a cyber exercise.

NON-STOP VISITS? | A ‘continued physical presence’ of European representatives on the ground in Ukraine over the coming days and weeks could prevent an escalation, according to a letter sent by Lithuania to EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell, EU foreign ministers and NATO partners, seen by EURACTIV earlier this week.

Vilnius’ call for a more coordinated approach between EU foreign ministers comes after a Romanian proposal for an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Kyiv, which could demonstrate the solidarity of the EU to Ukraine.

While EU officials said such an option is being considered, no decisions have been made so far. However, the EU foreign minister meeting next week in Brussels could potentially discuss the option, an EU official told EURACTIV.

EU-AFRICA RECAP | EU and African leaders wrapped up a two-day summit in Brussels last week, with both sides stressing that the promise of a “partnership of equals” and a “new spirit” of relations would become reality, but divides remain. Have a look into our Special Report on investment, big health promises and security woes.

NEW BATTLEGROUPS | Amid US warnings of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO defence ministers in Brussels discussed a detailed plan for four new battle groups in southeastern Europe. It remains, unclear, however, if the host country’s all will be onboard.

PROPOSAL RESPONSE | Russia told the US this week it should withdraw arms and personnel from new NATO members, and that it and NATO must legally commit to stop NATO enlargement eastward, as a new response to the West after it had refused Moscow’s security proposals.

TAX INCENTIVES | The EU is considering waiving VAT when buying defence equipment produced in Europe in order to promote joint armaments projects, according to a defence policy proposal presented by the European Commission.

SPACE DREAMS | The European Commission also presented a €6 billion satellite communications plan, as part of a push to cut the EU’s dependence on foreign companies. The EU initiative aims to protect key communications services and surveillance data against any outside interference as concerns grow over Russian and Chinese military advances in outer space and a surge in satellite launches.

EU space ministers also agreed that the bloc needed an autonomous satellite constellation infrastructure for high-speed internet access.

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